Bush Tax Cuts vs. Obama Stimulus

What impact did the Bush Tax Cuts have on employment?
What impact did the Obama Stimulus have on employment?

Let’s look at each of those, and compare what the Employment-Population ratio was in the month they were signed, and then 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years after.

The Bush Tax Cuts were actually the combination of two different bills. Let’s focus on the 2nd part, the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, signed into law by President George W. Bush on May 28, 2003. The Employment-Population Ratio had been dropping steadily from its high in April 2000 at 64.7%, because the Dot Com bubble had burst, and things only got worse when our nation’s fiscal and governmental capitals were hit by terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. By May 2003, the Employment-Population Ratio had dropped to 62.3%, and was still dropping. But the Bush tax cuts slowed the rate of descent, stopped the fall at a low of 62.0% and then turned it around and the rate started climbing again, reaching 62.3% again in May 2004, 62.8% in May 2005, and 63.1% in May 2006. So, in the first 3 years after the 2003 Bush Tax Cuts, the Employment-Population Ratio had been turned around and improved by eight-tenths of a point.

By comparison, the Obama “Stimulus”, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, was signed into law by President Barack Obama on February 17, 2009. The Employment-Population Ratio in February 2009 was 60.3% A year later, in February 2010 it was 58.5%. A year later, in February 2011 it was 58.4%. A year later, in February 2012 it was 58.6%.

Employment DROPPED in the wake of the “Stimulus” and never recovered. In the first 3 years after the 2009 Obama Stimulus, the Employment-Population Ratio was 1 and seven-tenths LOWER than when the bill was signed. The “stimulus” did not “save or create” jobs, it destroyed them. THe “stimulus” did not improve employment, it made it worse.

So, while the Bush Tax Cuts turned a recession around improved the Employment-Population Ratio by 0.8 points (from 62.3 to 63.1) in the first three years after it was passed, the Obama “Stiumulus” worsened a recession and worsened the Employment-Population Ratio by 1.8 points (from 60.3 to 58.5) in the first year after it was passed, and left the Employment-Population Ratio essentially flatlined at that lower level for the next two, almost three, years.

There has been no recovery to employment under Obama, as shown in this graph of the Employment-Population Ratio over the duration of both the George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama Presidencies:

{Hat Tip to ChrissyTheHyphenated, click image to enlarge}

The Bush Tax Cuts turned the DotComBust/Terrorist Attacks recession around, and the Employment-Population Ratio steadily increased until… Democrats took majority control of the House and Senate (and therefore majority control of budgets and spending). The Democrats drove the economy into the ditch, and left it there.

See Also: The Bush Tax Cuts … both employment and revenues went UP!

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7 Responses to Bush Tax Cuts vs. Obama Stimulus

  1. ZurichMike says:

    Fabulous graphic. Thanks for posting this.

  2. Thanks, Mike.

    Here are some more data points:

    A-1. Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and over, 1977 to date[Numbers in thousands]

    # Employed 2001: 136.9 M
    # Employed 2002: 136.5 M
    Loss: 0.4M jobs
    Bush Tax Cuts signed 2003
    # Employed 2007: 146.0 M
    Increase: 9.5 M

    The Bush Tax Cuts turned job losses into Millions of job gains.

    TARP and the “Stimulus” led to job losses. There as still, to this day, MILLLIONS less people employed now than there were when TARP and the “Stimulus” were signed!

    # Employed 1997 129.6 M
    # Employed 1998 131.5 M
    # Employed 1999 133.5 M
    # Employed 2000 136.9 M
    # Employed 2001 136.9 M
    # Employed 2002 136.5 M
    # Employed 2003 137.7 M
    # Employed 2004 139.3 M
    # Employed 2005 141.7 M
    # Employed 2006 144.4 M
    # Employed 2007 146.0 M
    # Employed 2008 145.4 M
    # Employed 2009 139.9 M
    # Employed 2010 139.1 M
    # Employed 2011 139.9 M

  3. Pingback: Obama Lies | I Took The Red Pill

  4. Common Sense says:

    This is total non-sense. You have no baseline. Had there been neither tax cuts or stimulus what would the job market done during the respective time periods? The stimulus was fighting against a downturn while the tax cuts were in a prosperous time. Your argument is such an obvious fallacy.

  5. Common Sense says:

    This is total non-sense.

    The irony is thick, and apparently so are you.

    President George W. Bush “inherited” the Dot Com bust and the 9/11/2001 attacks, both of which hurt our economy and decreased employment (increased unemployment).

    The second part of the “Bush Tax Cuts” were signed May 28, 2003, and turned the economy around… both employment and revenues went UP as a result of the Bush Tax Cuts.

    For employment numbers, use the Employment-population ratio: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
    For Revenue numbers, use: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/hist01z1.xls

    Let’s look at the Employment-population ratio in the last month of each Fiscal Year (September) from 2000 onward:

    Year Employment-population ratio in September
    2000 64.2
    2001 63.5
    2002 63.0
    2003 62.0
    2004 62.3
    2005 62.8
    2006 63.1
    2007 62.9
    2008 61.9
    2009 58.7
    2010 58.5
    2011 58.4

    And let’s look at Receipts (Revenues) from 2000 onward:


    Year Total Receipts (in millions of dollars)
    2000 2,025,191
    2001 1,991,082
    2002 1,853,136
    2003 1,782,314
    2004 1,880,114
    2005 2,153,611
    2006 2,406,869
    2007 2,567,985
    2008 2,523,991
    2009 2,104,989
    2010 2,162,724
    2011 2,303,466

    Starting with Fiscal Year 2000, note how both employment and revenues went DOWN in FY 2001, DOWN again in FY 2002, and DOWN again in FY 2003. That’s the effect of the Dot Com bust and the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

    But the Bush Tax Cuts turned the economy around. Note how both employment and revenues went UP in FY 2004, UP again in FY 2005, UP again in FY 2006, and while employment dropped slightly in 2007, revenues were UP again that year.

    The Bush Tax Cuts improved employment and improved revenues… Revenues in FY 2007 were 44% larger than FY 2003 revenues!

    It wasn’t until the Democrats took majority control of the House and Senate, in January 2007, that the economy really started to tank. The Democrats have been in majority control (holding 2+ out of 3 of the House, Senate and Presidency) for 5.5 years, and they spent the first half of that driving the economy in the ditch and the second half of that leaving the economy in the ditch.

    If the Bush Tax Cuts are allowed to expire, and tax rates go up, both jobs and revenue will be lost. We will have lower employment (higher unemployment) and lower revenues.

    To allow the Bush Tax Cuts to expire would be irresponsible.

    You falsely claim that I have no baseline.
    You falsely claim that “the tax cuts were in a prosperous time”.

    The baseline is that the economy was in a three-year-long downturn when the 2003 Bush Tax Cuts were passed, with the Employment-population ratio having fallen from a high of 64.7% in April 2000 down to 62.3% when the 2003 Bush Tax Cuts were passed in May 2003. And the truth is that the Bush Tax Cuts turned that downturn around and the Employment-population ratio started increasing again, such that after three years it had risen to 63.1% in May 2006.

    The truth is that the Obama “stimulus” did NOT turn a downturn around, and three years after the “Stimulus”, the Employment-population ratio was 1.7 points lower than where it had been when the stimulus was passed (58.6% in February 2012, vs. 60.3% in February 2009 when the “stimulus” was passed).

    The truth is that when the August employment/unemployment numbers are released this coming Friday, the morning after Obama’s speech at the DNC, we will have gone three straight years (from September 2009 to August 2012) with the Employment-population ratio below 58.8%… and the last time that was true was January 1975 – December 1977. The truth is that the average Employment-population ratio during the Carter administration was 59.1%, and the average Employment-population ratio during the Obama administration has been 58.7%. Obama is now officially worse than Carter.

    No wonder so many people feel like this:



  6. There has been absolutely NO recovery to the Employment-population ratio in the last three years:

    If Obama were a man of his word, he wouldn’t even be accepting his party’s nomination this Thursday, since three straight years of no recovery equals, by his own admission, a “one-term proposition”:

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