What impact did the Bush Tax Cuts have on employment?
What impact did the Obama Stimulus have on employment?
Let’s look at each of those, and compare what the Employment-Population ratio was in the month they were signed, and then 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years after.
The Bush Tax Cuts were actually the combination of two different bills. Let’s focus on the 2nd part, the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003, signed into law by President George W. Bush on May 28, 2003. The Employment-Population Ratio had been dropping steadily from its high in April 2000 at 64.7%, because the Dot Com bubble had burst, and things only got worse when our nation’s fiscal and governmental capitals were hit by terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. By May 2003, the Employment-Population Ratio had dropped to 62.3%, and was still dropping. But the Bush tax cuts slowed the rate of descent, stopped the fall at a low of 62.0% and then turned it around and the rate started climbing again, reaching 62.3% again in May 2004, 62.8% in May 2005, and 63.1% in May 2006. So, in the first 3 years after the 2003 Bush Tax Cuts, the Employment-Population Ratio had been turned around and improved by eight-tenths of a point.
By comparison, the Obama “Stimulus”, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, was signed into law by President Barack Obama on February 17, 2009. The Employment-Population Ratio in February 2009 was 60.3% A year later, in February 2010 it was 58.5%. A year later, in February 2011 it was 58.4%. A year later, in February 2012 it was 58.6%.
Employment DROPPED in the wake of the “Stimulus” and never recovered. In the first 3 years after the 2009 Obama Stimulus, the Employment-Population Ratio was 1 and seven-tenths LOWER than when the bill was signed. The “stimulus” did not “save or create” jobs, it destroyed them. THe “stimulus” did not improve employment, it made it worse.
So, while the Bush Tax Cuts turned a recession around improved the Employment-Population Ratio by 0.8 points (from 62.3 to 63.1) in the first three years after it was passed, the Obama “Stiumulus” worsened a recession and worsened the Employment-Population Ratio by 1.8 points (from 60.3 to 58.5) in the first year after it was passed, and left the Employment-Population Ratio essentially flatlined at that lower level for the next two, almost three, years.
There has been no recovery to employment under Obama, as shown in this graph of the Employment-Population Ratio over the duration of both the George W. Bush and Barack H. Obama Presidencies:
The Bush Tax Cuts turned the DotComBust/Terrorist Attacks recession around, and the Employment-Population Ratio steadily increased until… Democrats took majority control of the House and Senate (and therefore majority control of budgets and spending). The Democrats drove the economy into the ditch, and left it there.