Hope and Change

How could Obamacare be repealed in 2011, when Obama would certainly threaten to veto any such attempt?

Here’s what the Rasmussen Election 2010: Senate Balance Of Power currently shows…

In the table below, the states marked in red currently have a Republican senator. Those in blue currently have a Democratic senator.

Solid Dem
Lean Dem
Toss-Up
Lean GOP
Solid GOP
Delaware California Colorado Florida Alabama
Hawaii Connecticut Illinois Missouri Alaska
Maryland Washington Nevada N. Hampshire Arizona
New York West Virginia Wisconsin Ohio Arkansas
New York (S)     Pennsylvania Georgia
Oregon       Idaho
Vermont       Indiana
        Iowa
        Kansas
        Kentucky
        Louisiana
        North Carolina
        North Dakota
        Oklahoma
        South Carolina
        South Dakota
        Utah

And

Current projections suggest that the Democrats would hold 51 seats after Election Day while the Republicans would hold 45. Four states are in the Toss-Up category (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, and Wisconsin). All four Toss-Ups are seats currently held by Democrats.

But what if conservative turnout (not just Republican turnout, but conservative independents and conservative Democrats, too) far exceeds anything that we’ve ever seen in a mid-term election?

Is Rasmussen factoring that in to their turn-out models?

I have a hunch that conservative turn-out could set a new high-water mark for a mid-term election, and that could shift those categories 1 to 2 places. For example, consider a shift of 2 places… the table above would now look like this:

Toss-Up
Lean GOP
Solid GOP
Very Solid GOP
Super Solid GOP
Delaware California Colorado Florida Alabama
Hawaii Connecticut Illinois Missouri Alaska
Maryland Washington Nevada N. Hampshire Arizona
New York West Virginia Wisconsin Ohio Arkansas
New York (S)     Pennsylvania Georgia
Oregon   Idaho
Vermont Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
North Carolina
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

I think the GOP could end up with 55 seats in the Senate as a result of this election.

And since the Senate class of 2012 includes 21 Democrats and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats, and the Senate class of 2014 includes 20 Democrats, it shouldn’t be beyond reason that 12 of those 43 would be willing to vote to repeal Obamacare in an effort to save their own seats

We may just be able to obtain a veto-proof, bipartisan majority in both houses of Congress to repeal that monstrosity called Obamacare.

As Joe Biden would say, that would be “A big f-in deal”.

Go ahead, call me a dreamer.

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32 Responses to Hope and Change

  1. Math says:

    Go ahead, call me a dreamer.

    You’re a dreamer. That’s a nice way of putting it.

  2. Math,

    You comment from Montreal, Canada, and you don’t really care about:
    1) The U.S. Government passing laws that they didn’t even read and that the U.S. Electorate didn’t want
    2) The IRS growing in size and being given more power,
    3) The U.S. Government working on putting private insurers out of business and working toward single payer healthcare

    Given that, I don’t really care what you think about this issue nor what you think of me.

  3. Aaron says:

    Math calls himself a “centrist”. Does a “centrist” support:

    The fairy-tale idea of “economic justice”? (coming from an atheist who doesn’t buy into so-called “fairy-tales”, no less)
    Government healthcare take-over?
    Anti-gun rights legislation?
    Terrorist mosques by Ground Zero?
    Redefining the institution of marriage to suit his political views?
    Forced acceptance of enviro-nut dogma?
    Forced societal acceptance of homosexuality?

    If you’re going to force a society accept homosexuality, then you must also force the society accept child-sexuality. NAMBLA is actively fighting for homosexuality acceptance, does anyone NOT know their real reason for that?

  4. Math says:

    You’re a funny man Aaron. So your argument that I’m not a centrist is because I don’t believe in your right-wing values?

    If you’re going to force a society accept homosexuality, then you must also force the society accept child-sexuality.

    You just lost me there. This is so fallacious, it undermines the rest of your post, and I won’t bother answering it.

  5. It’s so simple, even Big Bird understands the problem with Washington, D.C. …

  6. Aaron says:

    “So your argument that I’m not a centrist is because I don’t believe in your right-wing values?”

    No, but nice try. You actively stand AGAINST those values, which is far from simply “don’t believe…”

    Further, you’re labeling me as some sort of extremist because I don’t believe in your left-wing values. Hypocrite.

    “You just lost me there. This is so fallacious, it undermines the rest of your post, and I won’t bother answering it.”

    I don’t know about Math, but I don’t dismiss entire posts because of one single statement that I disagree with. I guess that is acceptable conduct at the daily kos or huff-post sites.

    Anyway, it is far from fallacious, Math. I’m simply extending the argument logically beyond its current point. You see, homosexuality is a deviant form of sexuality, no different from animal sexuality, necro-sexuality or child sexuality. You and the rest of the left wing demand that our society accept a deviant form of sexuality by masking it as a “civil rights” issue (even though it has nothing to do with civil rights). If you must accept one deviant form of sexuality, then you must accept all deviant forms of sexuality. Anything less would be arbitrary and unfair to those deviant sexuality groups not included. Child sexuality is another deviant form of sexuality, therefore if you accept homosexuality, you must accept child-sexuality, and animal, and necro-, and…you get the idea.

    Oh, and it is fallacious to assume that the forced acceptance of deviant forms of sexuality idea will not go beyond the point that it currently stands. That idea is already proven false by the very existence of NAMBLA.

  7. skeeter says:

    “Hope and Change” poster designer, Shepard Fairey, for the Obama Campaign says he has lost faith in the President to deliver “Change”. Says “Obama image is the wrong device to deliver change.”

    There is an ancient book that has often been consulted by great leaders that warns against putting all of one’s faith, IE Hope, in a man.

  8. How did we end up with Barack Obama as President? John Kerry knows:

    “We have an electorate that doesn’t always pay that much attention to what’s going on so people are influenced by a simple slogan rather than the facts or the truth or what’s happening,”

    Kerry thinks that’s true now, but the that was the truth in 2008, and masses of conservative voters are now fully awake and paying attention. Change will come November 2010.

  9. “We’re coming, you’re going, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”

    Senator John Kerry, 2004

    “We’re coming, you’re going, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”

    – Tea Party to RINOs and Democratic Socialists, 2010, 2012, 2014, …

  10. Just how badly has Obama lost Independents?

    He’s gone from +12 to -35 among Independents!

    January 19, 2009: Obama, the first African-American elected President, earns a +73 rating from Democrats and a -18 among Republicans. As for voters not affiliated with either major party, 34% Strongly Approve and 22% Strongly Disapprove to give the President-elect a +12 rating on the day before his inauguration.

    September 19, 2010: Among voters not affiliated with either major party, just 17% Strongly Approve and 52% Strongly Disapprove.

    (That represents a current -35 rating among Independents, as compared to his +12 rating among Independents on the day before his inauguration.)

    Source:
    Demographic Notes – Barack Obama Approval Index

    Obama won in 2008 by winning over Independents…
    Now he’s going to lose Congress because he’s lost Independents…

    Hope and Change, baby, Hope and Change!

  11. Voters in Pennsylvania already think that Democratic candidates for Congress have lost touch with the electorate and want to avoid accountability. Given an opportunity to address those concerns, debate the issues with his opponent, and convince Keystone State voters to promote him to the Senate, Congressman Joe Sestak instead ditched an audience in Hershey … in order to hang out with Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, his wife Teresa, and some cold cash

    Oh, the depths to which they have sunk…

    … so desparate for cash are they that they’ll ditch a debate and beg for cash with a failed Democratic Presidential candidate and his “sugar momma”, who got her money from her deceased Republican husband.

  12. Obama took Connecticut by 23 points two years ago, and now state attorney general Dick Blumenthal is within the margin of error — against a pro-wrestling impresario. When The One said he’d bring about Change, he wasn’t kidding.

  13. In a shortage economy, rationing forces some hard choices. Democrats running for Congress in both chambers have discovered this as donors have begun closing their pocketbooks or tapping out, and the desperation for dollars has them competing not against Republicans but each other. Politico reports that a dwindling pool of patrons are being pitched by Senate campaigns to skip sending any money to House candidates as Republicans will take control in the next Congress anyway

  14. “It’s time to change Washington (D.C.), not America.”

  15. Wednesday, October 06, 2010

    Current projections suggest that the Democrats would hold 48 seats after Election Day while the Republicans would hold 48. Four states are in the Toss-Up category (California, Illinois, Nevada, and Washington). All four Toss-Ups are seats currently held by Democrats.

  16. One state, Connecticut, has moved left one column (from “Leans Dem” to “Solid Dem”… although the amount of money the DNC is pouring into that race would seem to indicate that the DNC does NOT consider that race as “Solid Dem”).

    Five states have moved to the right. Of those, 4 of the 5 states moved right by one column (California, Colorado, Washington, Wisconsin), and 1 of the 5 states moved right by two columns (West Virginia).

    There are currently no states at all in the “Leans Dem” category.

    Of the four states currently in the “Toss-Up” category, the Republican is ahead, but within the margin of error.

    If Republicans win those three races, as well as all of the others currently listed as “Leans GOP” and “Solid GOP”, then the GOP will regain control of the Senate in January, as well as replace two Democrats immediately (the appointed Senators in Illinois and West Virginia will be replaced by Senators elected on November 2nd, and the elected Senators will be seated immediately).

    Those replacements are an important part of putting the brakes on any last-minute socialization in the post-election lame-duck session of Congress.

  17. Math says:

    So how is that “Repeal Health Care in 2011″ dream of yours coming along?

  18. I believe a bill to reapeal the two bills that consititute “Obamacare” will pass the House in the 112th Congress. Then, we’ll get to see which Senators still think Obamacare is a good thing. Any Senator who tries to filibuster the repeal, or vote against it, is putting their re-election in serious jeopardy. And there are a LOT of Democrat Senators who are up for re-election in 2012 and 2014. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see it pass the Senate.

    Of course, Obama would then veto the repeal bill, and “Obamacare” would at that point become single-handedly “his”, since his veto woud be the only thing that kept “Obamacare” alive.

    At that point, it would be worth taking the additional vote to try to override the veto. I don’t think Obama’s veto could be overridden in the 112th Congress, but it is still worthwhile to take a roll-call vote and put each and every member of Congress on the record with their vote.

    Repeal will likely have to wait until January 2013… after the 2012 elections give Republicans the Presidency and large majorities in both Houses of Congress.

  19. By the way, how’s that “Hopey Changey” thing working out for you?

  20. Math says:

    By the way, how’s that “Hopey Changey” thing working out for you?

    Like you so like to point out when you run out of arguments, I’m not from the US, so Hope and Change has never been working for me, is not, and probably never will.

    I believe a bill to reapeal the two bills that consititute “Obamacare” will pass the House in the 112th Congress.

    I have no doubt it will. You can count on the champions of fiscal conservativeness and small government to stall the House for weeks if not months and to spend millions on a bill that they know has absolutely no chance of becoming law.

    Add to that the 6+ months and more millions they’ll probably waste on trying to pass BS impeachment charges (again, with absolutely no chance of getting a conviction in the Senate), and it will be 2012 before you know it, and nothing will have changed, Congress will still be stalled by the party of No, and they’ll still whine that it’s the Democrats’ fault.

    Throw into the mix a possible Palin ticket, and Obama won’t even have to campaign to get reelected.

  21. We’ll see.

    Democrats lost at least six Senate seats Tuesday, with results in Washington and Alaska undetermined as of press time, but they retained control.

    That could change in two years, when Democrats have 21 seats up for grabs, compared to only 10 for Republicans. Also up for reelection are Sens. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (Vt.), the two Independents who caucus with Democrats — meaning the party has a total of 23 seats to defend.

  22. Aaron says:

    Does anyone really need to be reminded of the fact that Clinton’s impeachment trial had NOTHING to do with Lewinsky and everything to do with the actual criminal activity surrounding the Whitewater scandal?

    In fact, it was the Lewinsky BJ that successfully buried the Whitewater scandal, thus saving Billy from what would have otherwise been an inevitable ‘guilty’ vertict. Further, a hindsight review of the Lewinsky incident’s timing coupled with how easily Hillary forgave his actions makes it look suspicious.

  23. Speaking of “Hope and Change”, did Obama bring “Hope and Change”, or did he bring “the worst of Bush, amplified”?!

    Quantitative Easing Explained

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